Willful Ignorance

The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

Herbert I. Weisberg

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English

John Wiley & Sons Inc
29 July 2014

Clinical & internal medicine; Probability & statistics

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods

Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery.

Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

By: Herbert I. Weisberg
Imprint: John Wiley & Sons Inc
Country of Publication: United States
Dimensions: Height: 236mm, Width: 160mm, Spine: 23mm
Weight: 667g
ISBN: 9780470890448
ISBN 10: 0470890444
Pages: 464
Publication Date: 29 July 2014
Audience: Professional and scholarly , Undergraduate
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

Herbert I. Weisberg, PhD, is Founder of Causalytics, LLC, which develops innovative technology for predictive analytics for both medical research and business applications. He was previously President of Correlation Research Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the application of statistics to various business and legal issues. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Dr. Weisberg has published numerous articles and two previous books related to applied statistics.

Reviews for Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

This volume is an outstanding example of the need to keep our scientific methods in context and the value of careful historical research to provide this context. It should be a required part of the statistical training of every scientist. (Computing Reviews, 24 March 2015)