Stat-Spotting

PREFACE TO THE 2013 EDITION PART 1. GETTING STARTED A. SPOTTING QUESTIONABLE NUMBERS B. BACKGROUND B.1 Statistical Benchmarks B.2 Severity and Frequency PART 2. VARIETIES OF DUBIOUS DATA C. BLUNDERS C.1 The Slippery Decimal Point C.2 Botched Translations C.3 Misleading Graphs C.4 Careless Calculations D. SOURCES: WHO COUNTED--AND WHY? D.1 Big Round Numbers D.2 Hyperbole D.3 Shocking Claims D.4 Naming the Problem E. DEFINITIONS: WHAT DID THEY COUNT? E.1 Broad Definitions E.2 Expanding Definitions E.3 Changing Definitions E.4 The Uncounted F. MEASUREMENTS: HOW DID THEY COUNT? F.1 Creating Measures F.2 Odd Units of Analysis F.3 Loaded Questions F.4 Raising the Bar F.5 Technical Measures G. PACKAGING: WHAT ARE THEY TELLING US? G.1 Impressive Formats G.2 Misleading Samples G.3 Convenient Time Frames G.4 Peculiar Percentages G.5 Selective Comparisons G.6 Statistical Milestones G.7 Averages G.8 Epidemics G.9 Correlations G.10 Discoveries H. RHETORIC: WHAT DO THEY WANT US TO THINK? H.1 Using Short-Term Turnover to Measure Long-Term Problems H.2 Sudden Turns for the Worse H.3 Designating Myths H.4 Rhetorical Flourishes I. DEBATES: WHAT IF THEY DISAGREE? I.1 Causality Debates I.2 Equality Debates I.3 Policy Debates PART 3. STAT-SPOTTING ON YOUR OWN J. SUMMARY: COMMON SIGNS OF DUBIOUS DATA K. BETTER DATA: SOME CHARACTERISTICS L. AFTERWORD: IF YOU HAD NO IDEA THINGS WERE THAT BAD, THEY PROBABLY AREN'T M. SUGGESTIONS FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO CONTINUE STAT-SPOTTING ACKNOWLEDGMENTS NOTES INDEX