Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

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Dr Edward Geist (Senior Policy Researcher, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation)

Deterrence under Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

Dr Edward Geist (Senior Policy Researcher, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation)

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English

Oxford University Press
20 November 2025

Nuclear weapons; Artificial intelligence; Human-computer interaction

For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades?

Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

By: Dr Edward Geist (Senior Policy Researcher Senior Policy Researcher RAND Corporation)
Imprint: Oxford University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 236mm, Width: 158mm, Spine: 16mm
Weight: 487g
ISBN: 9780198976127
ISBN 10: 0198976127
Pages: 288
Publication Date: 20 November 2025
Audience: Professional and scholarly , Undergraduate
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear Dilemma The Emerging Strategic Environment From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities No Place to Hide? Recipe for a WOPR Fog-of-War Machines Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation Index

Edward Geist is a Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945-1991 (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

Reviews for Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

Some books are erudite and learned. Some books are entertaining and even funny. Some books offer a whole different perspective on a topic. Some books teach interesting things. Some books are well written. Deterrence Under Uncertainty by Edward Geist is exemplary in each of these categories. It is essential reading for a world awash with conversations about the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on armed conflict. * Herbert Lin, Arms Control Today * Geist, steeped in the history and craft of deception as a specialist in defence policy and security, thinks even the smartest agent can be made self destructively stupid by subterfuge. Fakery is so cheap and effective that Geist envisions a future where AI-driven ""fog-of-war machines"" create a world that favours neither side, but backs ""those who seek to confound"". * Simon Ings, New Scientist * Deterrence Under Uncertainty is an accessible exploration into the challenges and opportunities that arise when integrating AI with nuclear warfare. The concepts may be complex, but Geist makes them accessible to the average reader while offering more detailed explanations in the appendices. * Brock Sargent, H-Net Reviews *