Deterrence under Uncertainty

: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

Dr Edward Geist (Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation)

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English

Oxford University Press
07 November 2023

Nuclear weapons; Artificial intelligence; Human-computer interaction

For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades? Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons.

This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

By: Dr Edward Geist (Policy Researcher RAND Corporation)
Imprint: Oxford University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 240mm, Width: 161mm, Spine: 18mm
Weight: 1g
ISBN: 9780192886323
ISBN 10: 0192886320
Pages: 256
Publication Date: 07 November 2023
Audience: Professional and scholarly , Undergraduate
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear Dilemma The Emerging Strategic Environment From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities No Place to Hide? Recipe for a WOPR Fog-of-War Machines Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation Index

Edward Geist is a Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

Reviews for Deterrence under Uncertainty:: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

"Geist, steeped in the history and craft of deception as a specialist in defence policy and security, thinks even the smartest agent can be made self destructively stupid by subterfuge. Fakery is so cheap and effective that Geist envisions a future where AI-driven ""fog-of-war machines"" create a world that favours neither side, but backs ""those who seek to confound"". * Simon Ings, New Scientist *"