The Taiwan Tinderbox

The Island-Nation at the Center of the New Cold War

J. Michael Cole

$51.95

Hardback

Forthcoming
Pre-Order now

QTY:

English

Polity Press
14 December 2025

History; Politics & government; Warfare & defence

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world and overturned assumptions that large-scale conventional war was inconceivable in the twenty-first century. On the other side of the planet, democratic Taiwan faces the rising threat of a military takeover by China a conflict whose impact on the international community would be catastrophic. Renowned Taiwan expert and former intelligence officer J. Michael Cole explains how this Pacific nation has become a tinderbox that could ignite a full-scale global conflict. Drawing on unparalleled access to Taiwanese government sources and two decades of on-the-ground observation, he explores the root causes of the conflict between Taiwan and China - from the identity politics that make ""peaceful unification"" inconceivable, to the rise of Xi Jinping, the most powerful and authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. With in-depth analysis of how the war in Europe is influencing preparations by Beijing, Taipei, and Washington for a potential cross-Strait confrontation, The Taiwan Tinderbox is an impassioned plea for the defense of Taiwan as a priority for the international community and the future of democracy.

By: J. Michael Cole
Imprint: Polity Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 216mm, Width: 140mm, Spine: 33mm
Weight: 454g
ISBN: 9781509568055
ISBN 10: 1509568050
Pages: 250
Publication Date: 14 December 2025
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Forthcoming

Contents Acknowledgments Abbreviations Preface Introduction 1. The Unbridgeable Divide 2. Xi’s Unbridled Ambitions 3. Attacking Taiwan’s Democracy 4. The Impact of Ukraine 5. The Catastrophe: War in the Taiwan Strait 6. Avoiding the Nightmare 7. Taiwan and the Battle for Democracy’s Future Notes Index

J. Michael Cole is a Senior Non-Resident Fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, Canada, and the Taiwan Hub at the University of Nottingham, UK. He is also a Research Fellow and Executive Editor with the Prospect Foundation in Taiwan, and a strategic consultant for various governments and the private sector. Until May 2024, he was the Senior Advisor on Countering Foreign Authoritarian Influence (CFAI) with the International Republican Institute (IRI). He is a former analyst with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) in Ottawa.

Reviews for The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Center of the New Cold War

""A one-stop resource that adeptly combines the historical context and contemporary issues relating to the risk of a Taiwan Strait conflict, bringing to fore both the perspectives of mainland China and Taiwan."" Collin Koh Swee Lean, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University ""Describing the many factors that constitute Taiwan's security plight - military, economic, political, China, America - in a coherent way is no easy task. But J. Michael Cole does it well in his Taiwan Tinderbox, providing a wealth of detail while always keeping the big picture in view. That he resides in Taiwan adds a valuable immediacy to his analysis."" Richard C. Bush, The Brookings Institution ""Drawing on decades of firsthand experience in Taiwan, J. Michael Cole offers a penetrating and sobering exploration of how China's hardening posture under Xi Jinping, Taiwan's democratic consolidation, and American strategic indecision have converged in a volatile equation exposing Taiwan as a key frontline in the deepening global clash between authoritarian revisionism and democratic resilience."" Jude Blanchette, RAND China Research Center ""The Taiwan Tinderbox, astutely written by one of the sharpest minds on the subject on Taiwan, offers a clear-eyed and thought-provoking assessment of Beijing's intensifying encroachment, while deftly explaining Taiwan's remarkable resilience in the face of enormous odds. J. Michael Cole has produced an important and profoundly timely work on this David vs. Goliath struggle."" Christopher Walker, Center for European Policy Analysis ""The next great crisis will not be a surprise - it's already in plain sight. While global attention is drawn to active conflicts, J. Michael Cole’s excellent book reminds us that Taiwan, the most dangerous flashpoint of our time, is also the one we're not yet prepared for. With clarity and urgency, he reveals how Taiwan has become the geopolitical fault line where democratic dynamism and authoritarian ambition collide. This is not just a regional issue - it's a global test of will, strategy, and values."" Daniel Twining, International Republican Institute ""A sobering assessment"" National Post ""A strong case, both strategically and morallu, for defending Taiwan as a matter of vital interest to a world we'd want to live in."" Taipei Times