The Power of Polls?: A Cross-National Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Campaign Polls

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Jason Roy Shane P. Singh (University of Georgia)

The Power of Polls?

A Cross-National Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Campaign Polls

Jason Roy, Shane P. Singh (University of Georgia), Patrick Fournier (Universite de Montreal)

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English

Cambridge University Press
07 October 2021

Politics & government; Public opinion & polls; Political campaigning & advertising

Series: Elements in Campaigns and Elections

Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

By: Jason Roy, Shane P. Singh (University of Georgia), Patrick Fournier (Universite de Montreal)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 228mm, Width: 151mm, Spine: 6mm
Weight: 145g
ISBN: 9781108792462
ISBN 10: 1108792464
Series: Elements in Campaigns and Elections
Pages: 75
Publication Date: 07 October 2021
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

1. Do Polls Matter?; 2. Methodology and Assessment; 3. The Effects of Polls on the Search for Campaign Information; 4. The Effects of Polls on Vote Choice; 5. Conclusion.