Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture, 2 Volumes

Volume 1 List of Contributors xiii Acknowledgements xxv 1 Climate Change: The Physical Picture 1 Tony Eggleton 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Climate 1 1.3 Knowledge Gaps 6 1.4 Climate Change 8 1.5 Evidence for Change Since 1880 9 1.6 Changes to the Ocean 12 1.7 Climates of the Past 16 References 19 2 Future Physical Changes 23 Tony Eggleton 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 Short-Term Projections – 35 years 24 2.3 Longer Term Changes 35 2.4 Concluding Remarks 38 References 40 3 Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture 45 Keith Brander, Kevern Cochrane, Manuel Barange and Doris Soto 3.1 Introduction 45 3.2 Historic Trends in Global Fish Production and Causes of the Trends 46 3.3 Global Patterns of Expected Climate Change and its Impacts 49 3.4 Uncertainties and Assumptions in Projections of Future Global Fish Production 55 3.5 Options for Adaptation and their Implications for the Future 55 3.6 Conclusions 59 References 60 4 Biodiversity and Climate Change in the Oceans 63 David J. Booth, Elvira Poloczanska, Jennifer M. Donelson, Jorge Garcia Molinos and Mike Burrows 4.1 Introduction 63 4.2 Regional Changes on Ocean Physics and Chemistry 64 4.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Biodiversity of Fish and Fisheries 74 References 78 5 Impacts of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 91 Matthew H. Pinkerton 5.1 Introduction 91 5.2 The New Zealand Marine Environment 91 5.3 Fisheries and Fisheries Management in New Zealand 93 5.4 Climate Variability and Change in New Zealand 97 5.5 Effects of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 101 5.6 Concluding Remarks 107 Acknowledgements 109 References 109 6 Impacts of Climate Change on the Marine Resources of Japan 121 Hiroya Sugisaki and Keisuke Murakami 6.1 Introduction 121 6.2 Climate Change Effects on Marine Environments 121 6.3 The Status and Adaptation to Climate Change in Japanese Fishery Species and Predictions for the Future 123 6.4 Climate Change Impacts for Larval Stages of Species Important for Aquaculture and Stock Enhancement 125 6.5 Discussion 126 References 127 7 Impacts of Climate Change on Eastern Australia Fisheries 129 Bruce F. Phillips and David J. Welch 7.1 Introduction 129 7.2 North East Australia 130 7.3 South Eastern Australia 142 7.4 Conclusions 149 References 150 8 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States 159 Introduction Written by Jay Peterson, Roger Griffis Gulf of Alaska Written by Stephani G. Zador, Michael F. Sigler, John E. Joyce California Current Written by Mary Hunsicker, Steven Bograd, Lisa G. Crozier, Sam McClatchie, James A. Morris, Jr., William T. Peterson, Carol Price Pacific Islands Written by Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats Gulf of Mexico Written by Mandy Karnauskas, Roldan Munoz, Amy Schueller, J. Kevin Craig Southeast US Atlantic Written by (alphabetically) Nathan Bacheler, Michael L. Burton, Karla Gore, Todd Kellison, James A. Morris, Jr., Roldan Munoz, Carol Price Northeast US Atlantic Written by Jonathan A. Hare, Kevin D. Friedland and Timothy J. Miller 8.1 Introduction 159 8.2 Gulf of Alaska 160 8.3 California Current 165 8.4 Pacific Islands Region 176 8.5 Gulf of Mexico 180 8.6 Southeast US Atlantic – Climate Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 185 8.7 Climate Change and Fisheries on the Northeast U.S. Shelf 193 References 198 9 Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Pacific Fisheries 219 Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Christian Salvadeo, Daniel B. Lluch-Cota, Romeo Saldivar-Lucio and German Ponce Diaz 9.1 Introduction 219 9.1.1 Fisheries Overview in Mexican Pacific 219 9.1.2 Regional Climate and Environmental Trends 221 9.2 Case Studies 223 9.2.1 Pelagic Fisheries 223 9.2.2 Benthic Fisheries 225 9.3 Discussion 226 9.3.1 Major Uncertainties 226 9.3.2 Implications for Management 228 References 230 10 Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture in Chile 239 Eleuterio Yanez, Nelson A. Lagos, Ricardo Norambuena, Claudio Silva, Jaime Letelier, Karl-Peter Muck, Gustavo San Martin, Samanta Benitez, Bernardo R. Broitman, Heraldo Contreras, Cristian Duarte, Stefan Gelcich, Fabio A. Labra, Marco A. Lardies, Patricio H. Manriquez, Pedro A. Quijon, Laura Ramajo, Exequiel Gonzalez, Renato Molina, Allan Gomez, Luis Soto, Aldo Montecino, Maria Angela Barbieri, Francisco Plaza, Felipe Sanchez, Antonio Aranis, Claudio Bernal and Gabriela Bohm 10.1 Introduction 239 10.2 Institutional Framework in Chile for Addressing Climate Change 241 10.3 The Eastern South Pacific Climate System: Evidence and Projections 245 10.4 Case Studies 256 Acknowledgements 315 References 315 11 The Pacific Island Region: Fisheries, Aquaculture and Climate Change 333 Johanna E. Johnson, Johann D. Bell, Valerie Allain, Quentin Hanich, Patrick Lehodey, Brad R. Moore, Simon Nicol, Tim Pickering and Inna Senina 11.1 Introduction to the Pacific Island Region 333 11.2 Pacific Island Fisheries and Aquaculture 338 11.3 Projected Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture 344 11.4 Implications for Economic Development, Food Security and Livelihoods 360 11.5 Adaptation Options 363 11.6 Future Research 366 11.7 Conclusions 369 References 369 12 Impacts of Climate Change in the United Kingdom and Ireland 381 John K. Pinnegar, Paul Buckley and Georg H. Engelhard 12.1 Background 381 12.2 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries 385 12.3 Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture 397 12.4 Discussion and Conclusions 401 Acknowledgements 403 References 403 13 Canadian Fisheries and Aquaculture: Prospects under a Changing Climate 415 Jake Rice, Richard Beamish, Daniel Duplisea, Gregor Reid and Helen Gurley-Smith 13.1 Introduction – The Canadian Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries 415 13.2 Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Conditions 423 13.3 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Atlantic Fisheries and Fish Stocks 427 13.4 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Pacific Fisheries and Fish Stocks 433 13.5 Potential Climate Impacts on Canadian Aquaculture Facilities and Production 439 13.6 Conclusions and Implications 443 References 444 14 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture 455 Maria A. Gasalla, Patrizia R. Abdallah and Daniel Lemos 14.1 Introduction 455 14.2 Projections from Global Models 458 14.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Marine Fisheries 459 14.4 Case Study: Evidence of ENSO Effects on Fishery Resources of the Patos Lagoon Region (Extreme South of Brazil) Exploited by Small-Scale Fisheries 463 14.5 Potential Effects of Climate Change in Marine and Brackish Aquaculture 466 14.6 Final Remarks 470 Acknowledgements 472 References 472 Volume 2 List of Contributors xiii Acknowledgements xxv 15 South Africa 479 Johann Augustyn, Andrew Cockcroft , Sven Kerwath, Stephen Lamberth, Jean Githaiga-Mwicigi, Grant Pitcher, Michael Roberts, Carl van der Lingen and Lutz Auerswald 15.1 Introduction 479 15.2 Climate Change Effects on the Marine Environment 480 15.3 Effects of Climate Change on Marine Resources and Associated Fauna 485 15.4 Management Response to Climate Change Effects on Marine Resources and Aquaculture 511 15.5 Discussion and Conclusions 511 References 516 16 The Seychelles Tuna Fishery and Climate Change 523 Francis Marsac 16.1 Introduction 523 16.2 Observed Responses of Tuna Fisheries to Environmental Anomalies 535 16.3 Projected Environmental Changes and Possible Effects on Tuna Fisheries 547 16.4 Possible Impacts on the Seychelles Economy 560 16.5 Conclusions 561 Acknowledgements 563 References 563 17 The Impact of Climate Change on Marine and Inland Fisheries and Aquaculture in India 569 Bimal Mohanty, Elayaperumal Vivekanandan, Sasmita Mohanty, Arabinda Mahanty,Raman Trivedi, Manoj Tripathy and Jnanendra Sahu 17.1 Introduction 569 17.2 Impact on Biological Processes 575 17.3 Impact on Marine Ecosystems 579 17.4 Impact of Climate Change on Fragile Coastal Ecosystems – The Indian Sundarbans as a Case Study 581 17.5 Impact of Climate Change on Fish Production 587 17.6 The Way Forward 588 17.7 Conclusions 596 References 596 18 Management Adaptation to Climate Change Effect on Fisheries in Western Australia 603 Nick Caputi, Simon de Lestang, Ming Feng and Gary Jackson 18.1 Introduction 603 18.2 Climate Sensitivity of Marine Environment 609 18.3 Effect of Climate Change on Fish Stocks 614 18.4 Climate Change Effect on Aquaculture Species 627 18.5 Implications for Fisheries Management 628 18.6 Discussion and Conclusions 630 References 633 19 Climate Change and Fisheries in the Caribbean 639 Mónica Pérez-Ramírez 19.1 Introduction 639 19.2 Fish Production 640 19.3 Observed and Projected Changes 645 19.4 Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 649 19.5 Challenges for Fisheries and Aquaculture 652 References 656 20 Impacts of Climate Change on the Southern Ocean 663 Katja Mintenbeck 20.1 Introduction 663 20.2 Southern Ocean Fisheries 669 20.3 Interactions Between Fisheries and Climate Forcing 681 20.4 Management, Monitoring and Future Perspectives 686 Acknowledgements 687 References 687 21 Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Arctic Marine Ecosystems 703 Anne B. Hollowed, Wei Cheng, Harald Loeng, Elizabeth Logerwell and James Reist 21.1 Introduction 703 21.2 Methods 705 21.3 Results 711 21.4 Discussion 718 Acknowledgements 721 Appendix: Barents Sea Commercial Fish Stocks 721 References 723 22 Seagrasses and Macroalgae: Importance, Vulnerability and Impacts 729 Peter I. Macreadie, Jessie Jarvis, Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett and Alecia Bellgrove 22.1 Introduction 729 22.2 Importance for Fisheries and Aquaculture 738 22.3 Impact of Climate Change on Seagrass and Macroalgae 744 22.4 Climate-Related Loss of Seagrass and Macroalgae and their Potential Links to Fisheries and Aquaculture 749 22.5 Conclusions 751 References 752 23 Impacts of Climate Change on Pelagic Fish and Fisheries 771 Barbara Muhling, Martin Lindegren, Lotte Worsoe Clausen, Alistair Hobday and Patrick Lehodey 23.1 Introduction 771 23.2 Climate Change and the Pelagic Ocean Environment 774 23.3 Impacts on Physiology and Ecology of Pelagic Fishes 776 23.4 Future Projections for Pelagic Fishes 784 23.5 Significance for Fisheries 789 23.6 Management Responses 790 23.7 Conclusions 792 23.8 Case Study: Sardine and Anchovy in the California Current Ecosystem 792 References 797 24 Lobsters in a Changing Climate 815 Bruce F. Phillips, Mónica Pérez-Ramírez and Simon de Lestang 24.1 Introduction 815 24.2 Panulirus cygnus 816 24.3 Panulirus interruptus 820 24.4 Panulirus argus 822 24.5 Jasus edwardsii 826 24.6 Homarus americanus 830 24.7 Adaptation to Climate Change 833 24.8 Conclusions 837 Acknowledgements 839 References 839 25 Climate Change, Zooplankton and Fisheries 851 Hans G. Dam and Hannes Baumann 25.1 Introduction 851 25.2 Direct Response of Zooplankton to Climatic Variables 853 25.3 Indirect Responses of Zooplankton to Climate Change 861 25.4 Implications for Fisheries 863 Acknowledgements 866 References 866 26 Tropical Marine Fishes and Fisheries and Climate Change 875 David J. Booth, David Feary, Donald Kobayashi, Osmar Luiz and Yohei Nakamura 26.1 Introduction 875 26.2 Tropical Currents, Propagule Transport, and Ecosystem Connectivity Under Climate Change Conditions 877 26.3 Climate-Change Induced Range Shifts of Tropical Fishes and Fisheries 883 26.4 Fish and Fisheries in the Hottest Seas, Effects of Climate Change 888 References 890 27 The Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Phytoplankton 997 Donat-P. Hader and Kunshan Gao 27.1 Introduction 897 27.2 Effects of Increasing Solar UV-B on Phytoplankton Caused by Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 901 27.3 Light Climate in the Water Column 903 27.4 Effects of Ocean Warming 905 27.5 Effects of Ocean Acidification and Changes in Seawater Chemistry 906 27.6 Effects of Nutrients on Phytoplankton Growth 908 27.7 Effects of Increasing Pollution 909 27.8 Conclusions and Future Work 911 Acknowledgements 912 References 912 28 Socioeconomic Impacts of Changes to Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture that are Brought About Through Climate Change 925 Natalie Stoeckl, Silva Larson, Joseph Thomas, Christina Hicks, Sean Pascoe and Helene Marsh 28.1 Introduction 925 28.2 Small-Scale, Artisanal and Subsistence-Based Fisheries of the Western Indian Ocean 933 28.3 The Traditional Dugong and Turtle Fisheries of the Torres Strait 937 28.4 Commercial Fisheries of Australia 941 28.5 Discussion 945 28.6 Concluding Comments and Directions for Future Research 947 Acknowledgements 947 References 948 29 Conclusions 959 Bruce F. Phillips and Mónica Pérez-Ramírez Index 963