Dr Brennen Fagan is a postdoctoral research associate supported by the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity and the Department of Mathematics at the University of York. He received his PhD in Mathematics, working with the York Historical Warfare Analysis Group to better understand human conflict by examining and modelling historical war data, and now studies the mathematics of biodiversity change. Dr Ian Horwood is a historian at York St John University, where he is Senior Lecturer. His principal interests are in US military history, airpower history and the wars in Indochina. Dr Horwood received his PhD in History from the University of Leeds. Professor Niall MacKay is a mathematician and theoretical physicist at the University of York. He has interests in military history, operations research and combat modelling. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Durham University. Dr Christopher Price is Senior Lecturer in History at York St John University. His main areas of interest are political, economic and military history in the twentieth century, especially British and US history in the period surrounding the Great Depression, the two World Wars and the Cold War. He received his PhD in History from the University of York. Professor Andrew James (Jamie) Wood is a mathematician and systems biologist at the University of York. He specializes in the simulation and analysis of complex systems, and has interests across a range of modern international history and the analysis of warfare. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Imperial College London.
"“A series of compelling demonstrations that counterfactual history need not be a 'parlour game.' If we carefully assemble the facts and honestly lay out our assumptions, we can apply sophisticated statistical tools that yield deep insights into key 20th century conflicts—and how they might have played out differently."" - Phil Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania ""Well-written, concise prose, ground-breaking approach to using counterfactuals in historical analysis. Points out that counterfactual analysis is inherent in almost all investigations of causal relationships (laying out an explanation for why something happened almost always implies reasons why something else didn’t happen – this is quite compelling). This sort of strong defense of counterfactuals could go a long way towards 'normalizing' the method, convincing others that this isn’t just the realm of alternative history/Harry Turtledove novels. This book lays the groundwork for future work."" - Matthew Tattar, U.S. Naval War College"