Quality Control: Experiments on the Microfoundations of Retrospective Voting

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Austin Ray Hart (School of International Service, American University) J Scott Matthews (Department of Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland)

Quality Control

Experiments on the Microfoundations of Retrospective Voting

Austin Ray Hart (School of International Service, American University), J Scott Matthews (Department of Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland)

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English

Cambridge University Press
31 August 2023

Political science & theory; Elections & referenda

Series: Elements in Experimental Political Science

Conventional models of voting behavior depict individuals who judge governments for how the world unfolds during their time in office. This phenomenon of retrospective voting requires that individuals integrate and appraise streams of performance information over time. Yet past experimental studies short-circuit this 'integration-appraisal' process. In this Element, we develop a new framework for studying retrospective voting and present eleven experiments building on that framework. Notably, when we allow integration and appraisal to unfold freely, we find little support for models of 'blind retrospection.' Although we observe clear recency bias, we find respondents who are quick to appraise and who make reasonable use of information cues. Critically, they regularly employ benchmarking strategies to manage complex, variable, and even confounded streams of performance information. The results highlight the importance of centering the integration-appraisal challenge in both theoretical models and experimental designs and begin to uncover the cognitive foundations of retrospective voting.

By: Austin Ray Hart (School of International Service American University), J Scott Matthews (Department of Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Weight: 144g
ISBN: 9781009357036
ISBN 10: 1009357034
Series: Elements in Experimental Political Science
Pages: 75
Publication Date: 31 August 2023
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

1. Introduction; 2. The Case for Abstract Experimental Design; 3. Experimental Framework; 4. Retrospective Voting: Tests of Integration and Appraisal; 5. Retrospective Voting under Interdependence; 6. Heuristics and the Problem of Bad Benchmarks; 7. Conclusion; References.