Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion

A Guide for Decision-Makers

Clifford Young (Ipsos Public Affairs), Kathryn Ziemer (Ipsos Public Affairs)

$49.95

Paperback

Forthcoming
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English

Cambridge University Press
31 May 2024

Data analysis: general; Research methods: general; Social research & statistics; Political science & theory; Public opinion & polls

Series: Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences

A vast literature exists on theories of public opinion - how to measure, analyze, predict, and influence it; however, there is no synthesis of best practices for interpreting public opinion: existing knowledge is disparate and spread across many disciplines. Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion presents a systematic analytical approach for understanding, predicting, and engaging public opinion. It tells the story through the eyes of the pollster and draws an analytical road map for examining public opinion, both conceptually and practically. Providing a theoretical and conceptual foundation, as well as debunking popular myths, this book delves into the science of polling, offering tools analysts can use to assess the quality of polls. It also introduces methods that can be used to predict elections and other socio-political outcomes while understanding the nuances of messaging, engaging, and moving public opinion.

By: Clifford Young (Ipsos Public Affairs), Kathryn Ziemer (Ipsos Public Affairs)
Imprint: Cambridge University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
ISBN: 9781108790000
ISBN 10: 1108790003
Series: Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences
Pages: 200
Publication Date: 31 May 2024
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Forthcoming

1. The Three-Hatted Pollster; Part I Fundamentals of Public Opinion: 2. What is Public Opinion?; 3. Attitude Formation at the Individual Level; 4. When Public Opinion is Stable and When it is Not; Part II. The Pollster as Data Scientist: 5. Understanding Bias and Error; 6. Assessing a Single Poll in the 2016 US Presidential Election; 7. The Case of Grexit and Assessing the Polls in Aggregate; Part III. The Pollster as Fortune Teller: 8. Cognitive Biases in Prediction; 9. Triangulated Election Prediction; 10. Public Opinion as a Decision Input for Other Outcomes; Part IV. The Pollster as Spin Doctor: 11. Engaging Public Opinion: Theory and Practice; 12. Communicating in the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election; 13. The Pollster in Society.

Clifford Young is President of Ipsos Public Affairs in the United States and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS. He is an expert on consumer and public opinion trends, corporate reputation, elections and scenario construction. He also oversees Ipsos' media partnerships, including ABC News, Axios, NPR, Thomson Reuters, USA Today, the Washington Post, among others. Kathryn Ziemer is a Clinical Psychologist and Clinical Director at Old Town Psychology. She founded Old Town Psychology in 2018 and has built it into an award-winning mental health clinic that combines research and clinical work. She is an expert on attitude formation, emotion development, cognitive biases, and behavior change. She previously worked as a Research Scientist at Ipsos Public Affairs.