Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence: A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber...

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Bruce Garvey Adam D. M. Svendsen

Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond

Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen

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English

Springer International Publishing AG
26 October 2024

Management decision making; Knowledge management; Business mathematics & systems; Operational research; Artificial intelligence

Series: Management for Professionals

This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.

The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.

By: Bruce Garvey, Adam D. M. Svendsen
Imprint: Springer International Publishing AG
Country of Publication: Switzerland
Edition: 2024 ed.
Dimensions: Height: 235mm, Width: 155mm,
ISBN: 9783031661143
ISBN 10: 3031661141
Series: Management for Professionals
Pages: 340
Publication Date: 26 October 2024
Audience: Professional and scholarly , Undergraduate
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active

Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis.- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods.- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684).- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration.- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via ‘Estimative/Probabilistic Language’.- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options.- Scoping ‘Digital Twins’ in intelligence & strategic foresight projects.- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios?.- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets.- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making.- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?.- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework.- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment.- Advancing a New Methodological Process.- Process implications – Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.

Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain. Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.

Reviews for Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence: A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond

“Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligence is an essential read for leaders, policymakers, and analysts operating in cyber and emerging technology fields. Garvey and Svendsen provide not merely a methodology but a mindset--an invitation to embrace uncertainty as an opportunity for strategic innovation. In an age when the future is increasingly elusive, this book serves as both a guide and a call to action: to think beyond the immediate, to prepare for the unknown … .” (Wael Badawy, Computing Reviews, October 20, 2025)