Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made great progress in stabilizing inflation over the past two decades. As they have achieved a degree of basic macroeconomic stability, policymakers are looking to avoid policy misalignments and respond appropriately to shocks in order to achieve stability and growth. Officially, they often have adopted money targeting frameworks, a regime that has long disappeared from almost all advanced and even emerging-market discussions. In practice, though, they are in many cases finding current regimes lacking, with opaque and sometimes inconsistent objectives, inadequate transmission of policy to the economy, and difficulties in responding to supply shocks. Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa takes a new approach by applying dynamic general equilibrium models suitably adapted to reflect key features of low-income countries for the analysis of monetary policy in sub-Saharan African countries.
Using a progressive approach derived from the International Monetary Fund's extensive practice and research, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa seeks to address what we know about the empirics of monetary transmission in low-income countries, how monetary policy can work in countries characterized by underdeveloped financial markets and opaque policy regimes, and how we can use empirical and theoretical methods largely derived in advanced countries to answer these questions. It then uses these key topics to guide policymakers as they attempt to adjust food price, terms of trade, aid shocks, and the effects of the global financial crisis.
Andrew Berg (Deputy Director Deputy Director Institute for Capacity Development International Monetary Fund)
, Rafael Portillo (Deputy Division Chief
, Deputy Division Chief
, Economic Modelling Division
, Research Department
, International Monetary Fund)
Oxford University Press
Country of Publication:
Series: Africa: Policies for Prosperity
05 April 2018
Professional and scholarly
Further / Higher Education
1: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa 2: Martin Brownbridge and Louis Kasekende: Inflation Targeting in Uganda: What Lessons Can We Learn from Five Years of Experience? Section I: Empirical Evidence 3: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section I 4: Giovanni Melina and Rafael Portillo: Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa 5: Andrew Berg, Jan Vlcek, Luisa Charry, and Rafael Portillo: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Lessons from a Dramatic Event 6: Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, Andrew Berg, Peter Montiel, and Stephen O'Connell: Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Sub-Saharan Africa Section II: Analytical Issues Relevant for Monetary Policy Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa 7: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section II 8: Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and D. Filiz Unsal: On the Role of Money Targets in the Monetary Policy Framework in SSA: Insights from a New-Keynesian Model with Incomplete Information 9: Rafael Portillo, D. Filiz Unsal, Stephen O'Connell, and Catherine Pattillo: Implementation Errors and Incomplete Information: Implications for the Effects of Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries 10: Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna: On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks 11: Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Stephen O'Connell, and Richard Peck: Implications of Food Subsistence for Monetary Policy and Inflation 12: Andrew Berg, Tokhir Mirzoev, Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna: The Short Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and International Reserve Policy 13: Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and David Vavra: Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework Section III: Applied Models for Policy Analysis and Forecasting in SSA: Selected Case Studies 14: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section III 15: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, and Jan Vlcek: On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model-Based Approach 16: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, and Jan Vlcek: Do Money Targets Matter for Monetary Policy in Kenya? 17: Alfredo Baldini, Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Mai C. Dao, and Rafael Portillo: Monetary Policy in Zambia in the Face of the Global Crisis: A Structural Analysis 18: Luisa Charry, Pranav Gupta, and Vimal Thakoor: Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda 19: Ali Alichi, Marshall Mills, Douglas Laxton, and Hans Weisfeld: Inflation Forecast Targeting in a Low Income Country: The Case of Ghana 20: Rafael Portillo: A Structural Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in the CEMAC Region
Andrew Berg is Deputy Director of the IMF's Institute for Capacity Development. He first joined the IMF in 1993 and has most recently worked recently in the Research Department as chief of the development macroeconomic division. Before that, he worked in the African Department, including as chief of the regional studies division and mission chief to Malawi, and in the Department of Strategy Policy and Review. He has also worked at the U.S. Treasury and as an associate of Jeffrey Sachs. He has a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and an undergraduate degree from Harvard. He has published articles on, among other things, growth accelerations, the macroeconomics of aid, predicting currency crises, inequality, and the implications of public investment for debt sustainability, in addition to monetary policy. Rafael Portillo is at the IMF, where he has worked in the Western Hemisphere, Monetary and Capital Markets, African, and Research Departments. He took leave from the IMF in 2016-17 to work at the Joint Vienna Institute. His work has focused on macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy issues, through surveillance, research and technical assistance. Mr. Portillo has coauthored several IMF policy papers, working papers and academic publications. He received his PhD in Economics in 2006 from the University of Michigan and also holds degrees from the Universite Paris I (Pantheon-Sorbonne) and the Universite Paris IX (Dauphine).