The Model Thinker

With the exception of physics, science--and particularly the social sciences--currently resides in a liminal period characterized by hints of universal principles and the tantalizing possibility of robust prediction. In this accessible and pragmatic book, Page persuasively shows us how in these transition periods we can use the wisdom of crowds to improve our decision-making. The twist is that the 'crowd' is not made of individuals but of well-chosen models each of which offers a different window on the world. --Jessica Flack, professor at the Santa Fe Institute and director of the Collective Computation Group Page explains the value of applying several models to a single problem, and then provides a conceptual toolkit for doing so. His book is a labor of love. --Art Friedman, co-author of Quantum Mechanics The clarity of Scott's thinking has been awing me since our days together as doctoral students at Kellogg. Beautifully written, this book teaches us how to stay logical, coherent and effective at work and at life more broadly--amidst a world awash in ever more data, distraction and complexity. --Sally Blount, former dean of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University This book offers a remarkably comprehensive and insightful introduction to mathematical models in the social sciences, written by one who is a master of the field and a brilliant teacher. --Roger Myerson, Winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2007) and Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago An original and thought-provoking book, and a challenging one for a one-model thinker like myself. Brace yourself for an entirely new perspective. --Daron Acemoglu, professor of economics at MIT and co-author of Why Nations Fail