Minding the Weather

How Expert Forecasters Think

Robert R. Hoffman, Daphne S. Ladue, H. Michael Mogil , Paul J. Roebber

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English

MIT Press
15 August 2023

Psychology; Atmospheric physics

A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science.

A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science.

This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance.

The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.

By: Robert R. Hoffman, Daphne S. Ladue, H. Michael Mogil, Paul J. Roebber, J. Gregory Trafton
Imprint: MIT Press
Country of Publication: United States
Dimensions: Height: 229mm, Width: 178mm,
Weight: 454g
ISBN: 9780262548816
ISBN 10: 026254881X
Pages: 488
Publication Date: 15 August 2023
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

About the Authors ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii 1 Introduction 1 2 What Is the Forecasting Workspace Like? 27 3 How Do People Come to Be Forecasters? 49 4 How Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason? 81 5 How Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform? 101 6 What Characterizes Expertise? 129 7 How Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters? 151 8 What Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us? 191 9 What Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us? 211 10 What Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us? 243 11 Can a Machine Imitate the Human? 287 12 Can a Machine Replace the Human? 305 13 Forecaster-Computer Interdependence 337 14 Conclusions and Prospects 349 Appendix A: List of Acronyms 361 Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather 365 Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images 389 Appendix D: A Case Study in Human-Machine Interdependence 395 Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology 399 References 409 Index 463

Robert R. Hoffman is Senior Research Scientist at the Institute for Human and Machine Cognition in Pensacola, Florida. Daphne S. LaDue is a Research Scientist at the University of Oklahoma's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and Director of the Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. H. Michael Mogil is currently a consulting meteorologist focusing on meteorological education in the primary and secondary school systems. Paul J. Roebber is Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. J. Gregory Trafton is Cognitive Scientist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C.