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Best Fit Lines & Curves

And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations

Alan Jones

$158

Hardback

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English
Routledge
10 September 2018
Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations (Volume III of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) concentrates on techniques for finding the Best Fit Line or Curve to some historical data allowing us to interpolate or extrapolate the implied relationship that will underpin our prediction. A range of simple ‘Moving Measures’ are suggested to smooth the underlying trend and quantify the degree of noise or scatter around that trend. The advantages and disadvantages are discussed and a simple way to offset the latent disadvantage of most Moving Measure Techniques is provided.

Simple Linear Regression Analysis, a more formal numerical technique that calculates the line of best fit subject to defined ‘goodness of fit’ criteria. Microsoft Excel is used to demonstrate how to decide whether the line of best fit is a good fit, or just a solution in search of some data. These principles are then extended to cover multiple cost drivers, and how we can use them to quantify 3-Point Estimates.

With a deft sleight of hand, certain commonly occurring families of non-linear relationships can be transformed mathe-magically into linear formats, allowing us to exploit the powers of Regression Analysis to find the Best Fit Curves. The concludes with an exploration of the ups and downs of seasonal data (Time Series Analysis). Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
By:  
Imprint:   Routledge
Country of Publication:   United Kingdom
Volume:   3
Dimensions:   Height: 234mm,  Width: 156mm, 
Weight:   910g
ISBN:   9781138065000
ISBN 10:   1138065005
Series:   Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting
Pages:   530
Publication Date:  
Audience:   Professional and scholarly ,  Undergraduate
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active

Alan R. Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, aconsultancy service specialising in Estimating Skills Training. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (US) and Certified Cost Engineer (CCE) (UK). Prior to setting up his own business, he enjoyed a 40-year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an estimatorAlan is a Fellow of the Association of Cost Engineers and a member of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. Historically (some four decades ago), Alan was a graduate in Mathematics from Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was an MBA Prize-winner at the Henley Management College.

Reviews for Best Fit Lines & Curves: And Some Mathe-Magical Transformations

In the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting Alan has managed to capture the full spectrum of relevant topics with simple explanations, practical examples and academic rigor, while injecting humour into the narrative. Dale Shermon, Chairman, Society of Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF). If estimating has always baffled you, this innovative well illustrated and user friendly book will prove a revelation to its mysteries. To confidently forecast, minimise risk and reduce uncertainty we need full disclosure into the science and art of estimating. Thankfully, and at long last the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting are exactly that, full of practical examples giving clarity, understanding and validity to the techniques. These are comprehensive step by step guides in understanding the principles of estimating using experientially based models to analyse the most appropriate, repeatable, transparent and credible outcomes. Each of the five volumes affords a valuable tool for both corporate reference and an outstanding practical resource for the teaching and training of this elusive and complex subject. I wish I had access to such a thorough reference when I started in this discipline over 15 years ago, I am looking forward to adding this to my library and using it with my team. - Tracey L Clavell, Head of Estimating & Pricing, BAE Systems Australia At last, a comprehensive compendium on these engineering math subjects, essential to both the new and established cost engineer ! As expected the subjects are presented with the author's usual wit and humour on complex and daunting mathematically challenging subjects. As a professional trainer within the MOD Cost Engineering community trying to embed this into my students, I will be recommending this series of books as essential bedtime reading. - Steve Baker, Senior Cost Engineer, DE&S MOD Alan has been a highly regarded member of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession for several years. He is well known for an ability to reduce difficult topics and cost estimating methods down to something that is easily digested. As a master of this communication he would most often be found providing training across the cost estimating and forecasting tools and at all levels of expertise. With this 5-volume set, Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting, Alan has brought his normal verbal training method into a written form. Within their covers Alan steers away from the usual dry academic script into establishing an almost 1:1 relationship with the reader. For my money a recommendable read for all levels of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession and those who simply want to understand what is in the `blackbox' just a bit more. - Prof Robert Mills, Margin Engineering, Birmingham City University. MACOSTE, SCAF, ICEAA. Finally, a book to fill the gap in cost estimating and forecasting! Although other publications exist in this field, they tend to be light on detail whilst also failing to cover many of the essential aspects of estimating and forecasting. Jones covers all this and more from both a theoretical and practical point of view, regularly drawing on his considerable experience in the defence industry to provide many practical examples to support his comments. Heavily illustrated throughout, and often presented in a humorous fashion, this is a must read for those who want to understand the importance of cost estimating within the broader field of project management. - Dr Paul Blackwell, Lecturer in Management of Projects, The University of Manchester, UK. Alan Jones provides a useful guidebook and navigation aid for those entering the field of estimating as well as an overview for more experienced practitioners. His humorous asides supplement a thorough explanation of techniques to liven up and illuminate an area which has little attention in the literature, yet is the basis of robust project planning and successful delivery. Alan's talent for explaining the complicated science and art of estimating in practical terms is testament to his knowledge of the subject and to his experience in teaching and training. - Therese Lawlor-Wright, Principal Lecturer in Project Management at the University of Cumbria Alan Jones has created an in depth guide to estimating and forecasting that I have not seen historically. Anyone wishing to improve their awareness in this field should read this and learn from the best. Richard Robinson, Technical Principal for Estimating, Mott MacDonald The book series of `Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting' is an essential read for students, academics and practitioners who interested in developing a good understanding of cost estimating and forecasting from real-life perspectives .ã Professor Essam Shehab, Professor of Digital Manufacturing and Head of Cost Engineering, Cranfield University, UK.


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