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Hinge Points

An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program

Siegfried S. Hecker Elliot A. Serbin

$86.50

Hardback

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English
Stanford University Press
10 January 2023
"North Korea remains a puzzle to Americans. How did this country-one of the most isolated in the world and in the policy cross hairs of every U.S. administration during the past 30 years-progress from zero nuclear weapons in 2001 to a threatening arsenal of perhaps 50 such weapons in 2021?

Hinge Points brings readers literally inside the North Korean nuclear program, joining Siegfried Hecker to see what he saw and hear what he heard in his visits to North Korea from 2004 to 2010. Hecker goes beyond the technical details-described in plain English from his on-the-ground experience at the North's nuclear center at Yongbyon-to put the nuclear program exactly where it belongs, in the context of decades of fateful foreign policy decisions in Pyongyang and Washington.

Describing these decisions as ""hinge points,"" he traces the consequences of opportunities missed by both sides.

The result has been that successive U.S. administrations have been unable to prevent the North, with the weakest of hands, from becoming one of only three countries in the world that might target the United States with nuclear weapons. Hecker's unique ability to marry the technical with the diplomatic is well informed by his interactions with North Korean and U.S. officials over many years, while his years of working with Russian, Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani nuclear officials have given him an unmatched breadth of experience from which to view and interpret the thinking and perspective of the North Koreans."

By:  
With:  
Imprint:   Stanford University Press
Country of Publication:   United States
Dimensions:   Height: 229mm,  Width: 152mm, 
ISBN:   9781503634459
ISBN 10:   1503634450
Pages:   410
Publication Date:  
Audience:   Professional and scholarly ,  Undergraduate
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
"1. Introduction 2. Nuclear Background 3. The state of play prior to January 2004 trip. 4. Would you like to see our product? The improbable visit to North Korea. 5. Disastrous consequences of Bolton's hammer. 6. 2005: Back to North Korea. Vice Minister Kim Gye Gwan – ""No LWR, no deal."" Bob Joseph – ""No LWR till pigs fly."" 7. Kim Jong Il - Buying time. 8. ""Tell America, it worked and North Korean people are filled with pride."" 9. Back to the negotiating table. 10. 2007 and 2008 visits. Back to Yongbyon to confirm disablement. 11. 2008 – Almost there, but it all falls apart. 12. 2009: You don't know how bad it will get."" 13. 2009 and 2010: Clenching the fist instead of reaching for Obama's outstretched hand. 14. 2010 visit – ""Tomorrow, you will have a bigger surprise."" 15. November 2010 to April 2012 – Leap Day Deal goes up in smoke along with DPRK rocket. 16. Does the U.S. blow the Leap Day Deal up over one stupid rocket launch? 17. From Strategic Patience to Benign Neglect. 18. The ""Fire and Fury"" of 2017. 19. From the Olympics to Singapore. 20. The train wreck in Hanoi. 21. Summary and closing observations."

Siegfried S. Hecker is senior fellow and professor emeritus at Stanford University and director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. His expertise ranges from plutonium science to nuclear weapons and international security. Hecker has documented the history of post-Soviet Russian – American nuclear cooperation in the highly acclaimed Doomed to Cooperate. His scientific and diplomatic achievements have been recognized internationally, including the presidential Enrico Fermi Award, the American Nuclear Society's Eisenhower Medal and election to the National Academy of Engineering.Elliot A. Serbin worked with Siegfried Hecker at Stanford University from 2016 to 2020. Serbin supported the Nuclear Risk Reduction Project and extensively researched the history and status of North Korea's nuclear program. Serbin has most recently worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is currently a student at Harvard University where he is pursuing a J.D. and an M.A. in Public Policy.

Reviews for Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program

Hinge Points is a must-read for any serious practitioner of foreign relations. Siegfried Hecker lays out a riveting narrative derived from his man in the ring experiences over several decades. His deep insights are highly relevant to the challenges deriving from a nuclear-capable North Korea playing out in real-time. -Vincent K. Brooks, General, U.S. Army (Retired) With dramatic visits to North Korea's long-closed nuclear facilities, and a full cast of top nuclear scientists and diplomats, Hinge Points offers a remarkable account of how North Korea became a nuclear power. Only Siegfried Hecker could have written this sobering tale of why and how the US-with worrying consequences-continues to get North Korea wrong. -Mike Chinoy, USC US-China Institute Written by a scientist who has actually walked around North Korea's nuclear complex, Hinge Points is a piercing analysis of the decades-long failure to curb Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. With unparalleled mastery of both technical details and diplomatic complexities, Siegfried Hecker lays bare the history in a way that opens a future path to progress. -John Delury, Yonsei University With Hinge Points, Siegfried Hecker offers unique insights into North Korea' dangerous nuclear program. And no-one is better qualified to do so. Hecker has visited the North and talked with their nuclear experts many times-and has held their plutonium in his (gloved) hand. -William J. Perry 19th U.S. Secretary of Defense Hinge Points is an excellent book full of fascinating people and science and first-rate analysis from a man who has seen North Korea firsthand and knows better than most the dangers of a nuclear stand-off. The book lays bare Washington's missed opportunities to create a more stable and prosperous Korean Peninsula, as well as the difficult questions facing policymakers in the White House, Pyongyang and beyond. -David Tizzard, NK News


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