In the same way as there are many futures, not just one, there are many ways to conceive and practice foresight. The challenge of the great turning point of our civilization is to free ourselves from our prejudices in order to imagine and build desirable futures. The process is, by nature, ethical and prospective.
In a complex, uncertain and geopolitically transforming world, we must be open to the diversity of cultures and the different perceptions of the future. This requires us to reflect on the purpose and means of our societies.
Futures proposes different cultural and ethical views on civilizational transformation by offering a rare, transnational panorama of the visions of the future in a European, American and Chinese context. Through numerous examples, this book illustrates how foresight is practiced and what this can achieve in strategic terms.
Foreword by May East xi Foreword by Patrick Scauflaire xiii Author Biographies xvii Introduction xxv Carine DARTIGUEPEYROU and Michel SALOFF-COSTE Part 1 Epistemological Outlines 1 Chapter 1 Foresight and Civilization 3 Michel SALOFF-COSTE 1.1 An unpredictable but interesting future 3 1.2 From the melting pot of popular media to the diversity of forward-looking points of view 5 1.3 Changing civilization, the dynamics of disruptions 5 1.4 Examples of megatrends structuring the future 7 1.5 Foresight epistemology and epistemology of foresight 8 Chapter 2 Cultures and Trajectories 11 Jean-Éric AUBERT 2.1 Foundations of civilizations 11 2.2 The “sinicization” of the world and the exercise of power 14 2.3 The pressure on the West and the risks of disintegration 16 2.4 The South and the modernization of societies 17 2.5 Confrontations and conflicts 18 2.6 Facing climate change 19 2.7 Conclusion 21 Chapter 3 Forward-Looking Design of Evolution 23 Francis JUTAND 3.1 The search to answer questions about the future 24 3.2 Foresight as the design of human society 25 3.3 History 26 3.4 The dynamics of collective forces 28 3.5 The spiritual questioning 29 3.6 The active imagination of the future 30 Part 2 Foresight at the Service of Action 33 Chapter 4 A European Perspective on Foresight 35 Laurent BONTOUX 4.1 Understanding foresight applied to European policies 35 4.2 Foresight for European policies in practice 37 4.2.1 Context 37 4.2.2 Methods 39 4.2.3 A 2040 vision for the customs union 42 4.2.4 Reference scenarios for long-term strategic thinking 44 4.2.5 Foresight for better regulation 45 4.2.6 Short formats to engage decision-makers 45 4.3 How can “good” foresight be achieved? 46 4.4 Conclusion 46 Chapter 5 Foresight in Order to Act Ethically 49 Carine DARTIGUEPEYROU 5.1 Analyzing megatrends to question the future 49 5.2 Defining possible bifurcations and disruptions in order to accelerate transitions 52 5.3 Acting on socio-economic trajectories in order to make choices 56 5.4 Conclusion 58 Chapter 6 Foresight at the Service of Innovation 59 Nathalie POPIOLEK 6.1 The art of deciding in an uncertain world 60 6.1.1 The essence and role of foresight 60 6.1.2 A holistic and operational approach 61 6.2 Innovation strategy in companies in the context of transition 63 6.2.1 The new industrial and societal situation 64 6.2.2 The different innovation strategies 65 6.3 Foresight and support for innovation in companies 67 6.3.1 Analysis of the innovative ecosystem 67 6.3.2 Consequences of the innovative investment 68 6.3.3 Foresight approach and radical innovation 69 6.4 Conclusion 70 Chapter 7 Acting and Evaluating through Values in the Long Term 73 Valérie KAUFFMANN 7.1 The question of foresight applied to territories 73 7.2 Initiating change with action research 74 7.2.1 Better understanding of the issues at work 74 7.2.2 From the initiation of the project to the collective construction process 75 7.2.3 Getting to grips with the subject: integrating biodiversity? Field surveys 75 7.3 The need for dialogue: the values approach 76 7.3.1 The value approach to biodiversity 77 7.3.2 The compass, a tool for territorial strategy through the means of values 77 7.3.3 Entry through values: deciphering 78 7.4 From principles to proposals and means of action 79 7.4.1 Biodiversity as a common good 79 7.4.2 The ethics of dialogue 80 7.4.3 Acting over time 80 7.4.4 Individual and collective responsibilities 81 7.4.5 Towards a compass for territorial foresight 81 Part 3 Scenarios for the Future 83 Chapter 8 Changing the Thinking Mode 85 Zhouying JIN 8.1 The challenges facing human beings in the 21st century 85 8.2 Deep concern over the direction of human evolution as well as technological development 87 8.2.1 Concerns about the direction of human evolution 87 8.2.2 The imminent disaster facing science and technology 87 8.2.3 Are human beings ready for the negative impact of technological innovation? 88 8.3 The crisis of so-called human–machine civilization driven by the theory of scientific and technological omnipotence 89 8.3.1 An ideal outcome 89 8.3.2 A tragic outcome 90 8.3.3 Five “Wars” among three categories of species 91 8.4 A new understanding of technology 92 8.4.1 Soft technology that has been neglected for a long time 92 8.4.2 Soft technology, another paradigm of technology 92 8.4.3 Human beings must regulate technology 93 8.4.4 It is not enough just to regulate and control 94 8.5 What kind of civilization should human beings pursue? 95 8.5.1 The essence of Industrial Civilization 95 8.5.2 Exploring the future evolution of humanity from social-humanity perspectives – the sublimation and perfection of human nature 95 8.5.3 Global Civilization 96 8.6 The difficult task of creating a “Global Civilization” 97 8.7 Beyond Global Civilization – paradigm shift: from Global civilization to Great Civilization 97 8.7.1 Human beings should pursue a higher level of civilization than Global Civilization – Great Civilization 97 8.7.2 The significance of Great Civilization 98 8.8 Can humans eventually create a Great Civilization? 98 8.9 Sustainable development – paradigm shift of human survival and development 99 8.10 Changing the thinking mode is the key for paradigm shift 100 Chapter 9 Foresight Shock, Facing the Inevitable Impact of the Climate Crisis 103 Herman GYR and Lisa FRIEDMAN 9.1 Looking back to look forward 105 9.2 When foresight becomes shocking: tipping points 107 9.3 The race is on 108 9.4 A profound leadership moment 109 9.5 From foresight shock to climate action 109 9.6 The emergence of the regenerative era 110 9.7 Positive signals of the emerging regenerative era 112 9.8 From foresight shock to mobilizing action at scale: leadership practices 113 9.9 Three leadership practices for building the regenerative era 113 9.9.1 Visionary strategic leadership: from signals to strategy 115 9.9.2 Innovation leadership: from strategy to impact 117 9.9.3 Emotional leadership 118 Chapter 10 Post-Covid-19 Governance: Two Scenarios 123 Marc LUYCKX GHISI 10.1 Our approach to foresight 123 10.2 The shock strategy 124 10.2.1 The possibility of a major economic crisis in the near future 124 10.2.2 The two possible scenarios 127 10.3 Conclusion 133 Postface 135 Pierre GIORGINI References 145 List of Authors 161 Index 163
Carine Dartiguepeyrou is a political scientist and independent futurist, who is currently collaborating with the Department of Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille, France. Michel Saloff-Coste is the Director of Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille, France, and an adviser to public and private organizations.
