Experts in Uncertainty

[An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the accomplishment of the Cooke volume. --Risk Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended. --New Scientist The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently presented. --Choice The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein. --Mathematical Reviews A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical, psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my students. --A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health [An] excellent volume....No one...has systematically and methodically addressed how subjective probabilities ought to be used in estimating and evaluating societal risks. This is the accomplishment of the Cooke volume. --Risk Displays the state of the art in the techniques of using expert opinion for estimating contingencies that cannot be assessed directly....To be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means ended. --New Scientist The strengths of the book are its comprehensive examination of the contemporary practice and use of expert opinion, and its detailed case studies as illustrations. Its style is clear and the exposition of ideas well organized and thoroughly and intelligently presented. --Choice The book is the first to provide an account of this novel field and provides an admirable survey of many ideas emerging therein. --Mathematical Reviews A very useful, readable survey of the economic, statistical, psychological, and mathematical considerations that arise in using expert opinion. It will be excellent background reading for my students. --A. Paltiel, Harvard School of Public Health [An] asset of the volume is its clarity of exposition and its quantitative precision....Cooke's work displays an impressive encyclopedic knowledge....His analysis displays his analytic skills as well as his years of experience in applying his methods to the solution of problems in scientific, technological, industrial, and environmental risk assessment....The book is a must read for risk assessors, decision theorists, policymakers, mathematicians, and environmentalists as well as social, political, and moral philosophers. --Ethics It is, broadly speaking, about the speculations, guesses, and estimates of people who are considered experts, in so far as they serve as cognitive input in some decision process. . .The subject matter therefore overlaps disciplines from philosophy through policy analysis up to some rather technical mathematics. --Quarterly of Applied Mathematics