Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems

1 Introduction to rare event probability estimation - Jerome Morio and Mathieu Balesdent 2 Basics of probability and statistics - Jerome Morio and Mathieu Balesdent 3 The formalism of rare event probability estimation in complex systems - Jerome Morio and Mathieu Balesdent 4 Introduction - Mathieu Balesdent and Jerome Morio 5 Simulation techniques - Mathieu Balesdent, Jerome Morio, Christelle Verge and Rudy Pastel 6 Statistical techniques - Jerome Morio, Damien Jacquemart and Mathieu Balesdent 7 Reliability based approaches - Jerome Morio and Mathieu Balesdent 8 Methods for high dimensional and computationally intensive models - Mathieu Balesdent, Loic Brevault, Sylvain Lacaze, Samy Missoum and Jerome Morio 9 Special developments for time-variant systems - Damien Jacquemart, Jerome Morio, Francois Le Gland and Mathieu Balesdent 10 Estimation of launch vehicle stage fallout zone - Loic Brevault, Mathieu Balesdent and Jerome Morio 11 Estimation of collision probability between space debris and satellite - Jerome Morio, Juan Carlos Dolado Perez, Christelle Verge, Rudy Pastel and Mathieu Balesdent 12 Analysis of extreme aircraft wake vortex circulations - Jerome Morio, Ivan De Visscher, Matthieu Duponcheel, Gregoire Winckelmans, Damien Jacquemart and Mathieu Balesdent 13 Estimation of conflict probability between aircraft - Jerome Morio and Damien Jacquemart 14 Synthesis of rare event probability estimation methods for input-output systems - Jerome Morio and Mathieu Balesdent 15 Synthesis for time-variant systems - Damien Jacquemart, Jerome Morio, Mathieu Balesdent and Francois Le Gland