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Longtermism, broadly speaking, is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is one of the key moral priorities of our time. Calls for taking a long-term view towards global problems such as climate change and poverty are familiar, typically urging us to plan on a scale of decades or perhaps a century. By contrast, longtermism asks us to take seriously the idea that what we should do right now may depend on the effects of our actions thousands, even millions, of years into the future. Essays on Longtermism brings together leading scholars to discuss four sets of overlapping questions raised by the longtermist approach. First, should we accept some version of longtermism? Second, to what extent can we predict and control the far future? Third, which ethical priorities are recommended by longtermism, and how revisionary are they? Finally, what implications would longtermism have for the design or reform of social, political, and legal institutions? Contributors, who include both supporters and critics of longtermism, are drawn from a range of disciplines including philosophy, economics, psychology, law, political science, and mathematics, and from private industry.
1: Hilary Greaves, Jacob Barrett, and David Thorstad: Introduction Part 1. Evaluating the Case for Longtermism 2: Hilary Greaves and William MacAskill: The Case for Strong Longtermism 3: Katie Steele: Longtermism and Neutrality about More Lives 4: Johan E. Gustafsson and Petra Kosonen: Prudential Longtermism 5: Andreas L. Mogensen: Would a World Without Us Be Worse? Clues from Population Axiology 6: Christian Tarsney and Hayden Wilkinson: Longtermism in an Infinite World 7: Emma J. Curran: Longtermism and the Complaints of Future People 8: Charlotte Franziska Unruh: Against a Moral Duty to Make the Future Go Best 9: Stefan Riedener: Authenticity, Meaning, and Alienation: Reasons to Care Less about Far-Future People Part 2. Predicting and Evaluating the Future 10: David Rhys Bernard and Eva Vivalt: What Are the Prospects of Forecasting the Far Future? 11: Rachell Powell: Taking the Long View: Paleobiological Perspectives on Longtermism 12: Philip Kitcher: Coping with Myopia 13: Toby Ord: Shaping Humanity's Longterm Trajectory 14: Aron Vallinder: Longtermism and Cultural Evolution Part 3. Ethical Priorities 15: Olle Häggström: The Hinge of History and the Choice between Patient and Urgent Longtermism 16: Carl Shulman and Elliott Thornley: How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism's Limited Role 17: Amanda Askell and Sven Neth: Longtermist Myopia 18: Hilary Greaves and Christian Tarsney: Minimal and Expansive Longtermism 19: Owen Cotton-Barratt and Rose Hadshar: What Would a Longtermist Society Look Like? 20: Gustav Alexandrie and Maya Eden: Is Extinction Risk Mitigation Uniquely Cost-Effective? Not in Standard Population Models 21: Michael Geruso and Dean Spears: Depopulation and Longtermism 22: Joe Carlsmith: Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI 23: Richard Ngo and Adam Bales: Deceit and Power: Machine Learning and Misalignment 24: Kevin Kuruc and David Manley: The Ethics, Economics, and Demographics of Delaying Aging 25: Heather Browning and Walter Veit: Longtermism and Animals Part 4. Institutions and Society 26: Andreas T. Schmidt and Jacob Barrett: Longtermist Political Philosophy: An Agenda for Future Research 27: Tyler M. John: Retrospective Accountability: A Mechanism for Representing Future Generations 28: H. Orri Stefánsson: Longtermism and Social Risk-Taking 29: Ilan Noy and Shakked Noy: The Short-Termism of 'Hard' Economics 30: Eric Martínez and Christoph Winter: The Intuitive Appeal of Legal Protection for Future Generations 31: Stefan Schubert, Lucius Caviola, Julian Savulescu, and Nadira S. Faber: Temporal Distance Reduces Ingroup Favoritism
Hilary Greaves is Professor of Philosophy at the University of Oxford. Her research interests range broadly across ethics, but with a particular focus around issues of axiology and those lying at the interface with economics. Greaves' theoretical work has spanned, among other things, utilitarian aggregation, population axiology, interpersonal comparisons of well-being, moral uncertainty, discounting, and cluelessness. She also has worked on various issues of practical ethics, including healthcare prioritization, population size, global poverty, climate change, artificial intelligence and existential risk. From 2017 to 2022, Greaves served as Founding Director of the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford. Jacob Barrett is Assistant Professor of Philosophy and Political Science at Vanderbilt University, and a Senior Research Affiliate at the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford. His research focuses on social, moral, and political philosophy, and especially on questions relating to long-run social reform. David Thorstad is Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Vanderbilt University, Senior Research Affiliate at the Global Priorities Institute, Oxford, and Research Affiliate at the MINT Lab, ANU. Thorstad's research focuses on bounded rationality, global priorities research, and the ethics of emerging technologies.
Reviews for Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future
No Good Quote * B.V.E. Hyde, Utilitas *
