This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behaviour of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles and extensive applications are presented.
List of Boxes viii List of Tables x List of Figures xii Preface xiv Acknowledgments xv 1 Basic Concepts and Measures 1 1.1 Meaning of “Population” 1 1.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change 2 1.3 The Structure of Demographic Rates 3 1.4 Period Rates and Person-years 5 1.5 Principal Period Rates in Demography 7 1.6 Growth Rates in Demography 8 1.7 Estimating Period Person-years 15 1.8 The Concept of a Cohort 16 1.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events 18 2 Age-specific Rates and Probabilities 21 2.1 Period Age-specific Rates 21 2.2 Age-standardization 24 2.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions 28 2.4 The Lexis Diagram 31 2.5 Age-specific Probabilities 32 2.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year 35 3 The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes 38 3.1 Period Life Tables 42 3.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of N a X Values And/or for Making The N M X → N Q X Conversion 44 3.3 The Very Young Ages 47 3.4 The Open-ended Age Interval 48 3.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction 48 3.6 Interpreting the Life Table 51 3.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population 53 3.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process 59 3.9 Life Table Construction Revisited 61 3.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies 64 3.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes 65 Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation 69 4 Multiple Decrement Processes 71 4.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort 71 4.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods 73 4.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes 78 4.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data 80 4.5 Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies 84 4.6 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data 86 4.7 Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement 89 5 Fertility and Reproduction 92 5.1 Period Fertility Rates 93 5.2 Decomposition of Period Fertility 99 5.3 Cohort Fertility 101 5.4 Birth Interval Analysis 106 5.5 Reproduction Measures 113 6 Population Projection 117 6.1 Projections and Forecasts 117 6.2 Population Projection Methodology 118 6.3 The Cohort Component Method 119 6.4 Projections in Matrix Notation 129 6.5 Population Forecasts 131 6.6 The USBOC Projection of the US Population 133 6.7 Alternative Forecasting Methods 134 6.8 Accuracy and Uncertainty 135 6.9 Other Uses of Population Projections 136 7 The Stable Population Model 138 7.1 A Simplified Example of a Stable Population 138 7.2 Lotka’s Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population 141 7.3 The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population 144 7.4 The “Stable Equivalent” Population 147 7.5 The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate 150 7.6 The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates 155 7.7 The Momentum of Population Growth 161 7.8 Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation 167 8 Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations 171 8.1 An Illustration 171 8.2 Relations in Continuous Age and Time 172 8.3 Extensions of the Basic Relations 176 8.4 Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate 180 8.5 Age Structural Dynamics 182 8.6 Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation 184 9 Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events 191 9.1 Model Age Patterns of Mortality 192 9.2 Age Patterns of Nuptiality 201 9.3 Age Patterns of Fertility 204 9.4 Model Age Patterns of Migration 208 10 Methods for Evaluating Data Quality 211 10.1 Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors 212 10.2 Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors 214 10.3 Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality 215 11 Indirect Estimation Methods 224 11.1 Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method 224 11.2 Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood 233 11.3 The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality 241 11.4 Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories 243 11.5 Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distributions at Two Censuses 246 12 Increment–Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin) 256 12.1 Introduction 256 12.2 Increment–Decrement Life Tables 257 12.3 Estimation of Increment–Decrement Life Tables 259 12.4 Formalization and Generalization of Relations 266 12.5 The Simplest Case: A Two-state System 270 12.6 Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates 271 12.7 Programs for the Calculation of Increment–Decrement Life Tables 271 References 273 Index 285
Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society. Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.
Reviews for Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
This will be a bible for demographers in coming years and decades. Professor James Vaupel, Founding Director, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany It is really a graduate-level textbook of formal demography. As such, it is sorely needed. I will certainly use it as my basic textbook when it comes out. The authors have done an excellent job of keeping this interesting and informative. Professor Kenneth Hill, Director of the Johns Hopkins Population Center It is not a text on population geography. That was not the creative intention of the authors: they provide a carefully crafted toolkit for advanced exercises on demographic analysis. It succeeds as an undergraduate level text and is reasonable priced Geographical Association For the mathematically competent, it is terrific. The coverage of the book is indicated by its 12 chapters: basic concept and measures, age-specific rates and probabilities, the life table and single decrement processes, multiple decrement processes, fertility and reproduction, population projections, the stable population model, demographic relationships in non-stable populations, modelling age patterns of vital events, methods of evaluating data quality, indirect estimation methods, and increment-decrement life tables ( this chapter contributed by Alberto Palloni). As a text, the book could be used as a first course for those with particularly good mathematical skills but it is probably better employed as a successor to a simpler methods course in which the fundamental ideas of demography have been made clear. The earlier course would filter out those students who would most benefit from a course based on this book. For the practitioner, this is an excellent reference book. It takes the fear out of a lot of mathematical material in demograohy through clear and explicit explanantion...this is a five star book. Fantastic, terrific, exciting. Its authors deserve very great praise for the service that they provided to the discipline. Its emergence has already led us here at the ANU to consider a restructuring of our teaching to incorporate a course based on this book. Journal of Population Research This is a five-star book. Fantastic, terrific, exiting. Its authors deserve very great praise for the service that they have provided the discipline. Journal of Population Research
