Tony Gwynn is the greatest hitter in the history of baseball. That's the conclusion of this engaging and provocative analysis of baseball's all-time best hitters. Michael Schell challenges the traditional list of all-time hitters, which places Ty Cobb first, Gwynn 16th, and includes just 8 players whose prime came after 1960. Schell argues that the raw batting averages used as the list's basis should be adjusted to take into account that hitters played in different eras, with different rules, and in different ballparks. He makes those adjustments and produces a new list of the best 100 hitters that will spark debate among baseball fans and statisticians everywhere.
Schell combines the two qualifications essential for a book like this. He is a professional statistician--applying his skills to cancer research - and he has an encyclopedic knowledge of baseball. He has wondered how to rank hitters since he was a boy growing up as a passionate Cincinnati Reds fan. Over the years, he has analyzed the most important factors, including the relative difficulty of hitting in different ballparks, the length of hitters' careers, the talent pool that players are drawn from, and changes in the game that raised or lowered major-league batting averages (the introduction of the designated hitter and changes in the height and location of the pitcher's mound, for example). Schell's study finally levels the playing field, giving new credit to hitters who played in adverse conditions and downgrading others who faced fewer obstacles. His final ranking of players differs dramatically from the traditional list. Gwynn, for example, bumps Cobb to 2nd place, Rod Carew rises from 28th to 3rd, Babe Ruth drops from 9th to 16th, and Willie Mays comes from off the list to rank 13th. Schell's list also gives relatively more credit to modern players, containing 39 whose best days were after 1960.
Using a fun, conversational style, the book presents a feast of stories and statistics about players, ballparks, and teams--all arranged so that calculations can be skipped by general readers but consulted by statisticians eager to follow Schell's methods or introduce their students to such basic concepts as mean, histogram, standard deviation, p-value, and regression.
Baseball's All-Time Best Hitters will shake up how baseball fans view the greatest heroes of America's national pastime.
By:
Michael J. Schell
Imprint: Princeton University Pres
Country of Publication: United States
Dimensions:
Height: 235mm,
Width: 152mm,
Weight: 567g
ISBN: 9780691171111
ISBN 10: 0691171114
Publication Date: 09 August 2016
Audience:
General/trade
,
Professional and scholarly
,
ELT Advanced
,
Undergraduate
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active
Preface ix
Abbreviations xiChapter 1: Fair Ball!: Why Adjustments Are Needed 1
PART ONE: The Methods
Chapter 2: Manager's Game Plan: Method for Identifying the Best Batters 11Chapter 3: New Ball!: Historical Changes in Offensive Events 28Chapter 4: Calling It a Career: Examining Player Aging 45Chapter 5: Talent Search: Measuring the Spread in Player Performance 58Chapter 6: Home Park Advantage: A Closer Look at Park Effects 69
PART TWO: The Findings
Chapter 7: Swing, Batter!: Adjusting Batting Average 101Chapter 8: Hit . . . and Run: Adjusting Double and Triple Totals 108Chapter 9: This One's Outta Here!: Adjusting Home Run Totals 118Chapter 10: Changing the Score: Adjusting Run and RBI Totals 131Chapter 11: The Count: Adjusting Walk and Strikeout Totals 149Chapter 12: Stealing the Show: Adjusting Stolen Base Totals 162Chapter 13: Putting It All Together: First, a Look at Traditional Measures 168Chapter 14: Fantasy League: Baseball's Best Batters 177Chapter 15: The Players Take the Field: Accounting for Player Position 189Chapter 16: Final Score: Updates for the 2004 Season 204Chapter 17: Post-Game Report: Conclusions 209
APPENDICES: Statistical MethodsA The Piecewise Linear Regression Method 219B Moving Average Smoothing of Data 226C The Multiple Changepoint Regression Procedure 228D How to Estimate Ballpark Effects 235E Transformations of Offensive Event Averages 247F How to Adjust for Doubles and Triples 257G Predicting Runs and RBIs from the Batting Record 260Adjustment DataH Regular Player Event Averages 265I Event Performance Spreads 266J Event Park Effects 267K Home Run Park Effects 284Player ResultsL Best Individual Seasons 297M Best Careers 327N Adjusted Career Offensive Averages 356
Glossary 380References 387Player Index 389
Reviews for Baseball’s All-Time Best Sluggers: Adjusted Batting Performance from Strikeouts to Home Runs
"""Baseball fans, ever fascinated with statistics, should enjoy rifling through this information-packed work.""--Library Journal ""Michael J. Schell has produced what may be the most rigorous effort yet to compare baseball players from various eras. And in the process, he has offered a tantalizing suggestion that steroids may not have affected the game as much as many people assume.""--Christopher Shea, The Boston Globe"
