AI and the Future of the Public Sector

Acknowledgments xv About the Author xvii Introduction xix Chapter 1 Understanding the Key Building Blocks of Progress 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Key Building Blocks of Data Science and AI 2 1.2.1 Data Acquisition 2 1.2.2 Data Maintenance 2 1.2.3 Analysis 3 1.2.4 Communication 3 1.2.5 Machine Learning 4 1.2.6 Artificial Intelligence 4 1.2.7 Advantages and Disadvantages 4 1.2.8 Four Key Focuses for Future AI 5 1.3 Quantum Computing 7 1.3.1 What Is Quantum Computing? 7 1.3.2 Impact on Cybersecurity 9 1.4 Proliferation of Devices 9 1.5 5G and the Impact of Advanced Communications 11 1.5.1 Global Transformation 12 1.6 Public Sectors 4.0 12 1.7 Conclusion 14 1.8 Notes 15 Chapter 2 Office of Finance 17 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 Forecasting and Public Finance Management 18 2.3 Forecasting 19 2.3.1 Qualitative Forecasting 19 2.3.2 Quantitative Forecasting 20 2.3.3 Forecasting for Public Sector Transformation 21 2.3.4 Managing Risk and Uncertainty 22 2.3.5 Forecasting in IT Projects 23 2.3.6 The Move Toward Activity-Based Costing 24 2.3.7 Hard Benefits and Soft Benefits 24 2.3.8 Enterprise Resource Planning 26 2.3.9 AI and Governmental Administration 28 2.3.10 Global Partnership on AI 29 2.4 Conclusion 30 2.5 Notes 30 Chapter 3 Public Order and Safety 33 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 The Future of Policing in an AI Era 33 3.2.1 Transformation of Police Work 34 3.2.2 Criminal Use of AI 36 3.2.3 Police Use of New Technologies 36 3.2.4 Case Studies in Policing 37 3.2.5 Policing in China 38 3.2.6 Forward-Looking Policing 39 3.3 AI in Policing 41 3.3.1 Impact on Police Behavior 42 3.4 The Citizen as a Key Component of Future Policing 42 3.5 Police and Location Analytics 43 3.6 Policing Summary 44 3.7 Border Security and AI 45 3.8 Customs Reform 46 3.8.1 The Citizen and Taxation 47 3.9 Fire Safety and AI 48 3.9.1 Natural Fire Prevention 49 3.9.2 Prevention of Urban Fires 49 3.9.3 Smart Homes and Fire Detection 49 3.9.4 Commercial Fire Prevention 50 3.9.5 Firefighting Using AI 50 3.9.6 Fire Station Locations 51 3.10 Conclusion 51 3.11 Notes 52 Chapter 4 Personal Social Services 55 4.1 Introduction 55 4.2 Care Homes 56 4.2.1 The UK Model 57 4.2.2 Care Homes in Japan 59 4.2.3 The Canadian Picture 60 4.2.4 The Emergence of AgeTech 60 4.2.5 Going Forward 61 4.2.6 Conclusion 61 4.3 Impact on Children 62 4.4 Mental Health 64 4.5 Social Protection 66 4.5.1 Social Risk Framework 67 4.6 Employment and Benefit Management 70 4.7 Conclusion 72 4.8 Notes 73 Chapter 5 Health 77 5.1 Introduction 77 5.2 Digitalization and Its Importance in Healthcare 77 5.2.1 Different Categories of Data Sources in Healthcare 78 5.3 Medical Monitoring and Biosensors 79 5.3.1 Use of Biosensors in Mental Health 81 5.4 Innovating to Zero in Healthcare 82 5.4.1 Zero Invasive Surgery 82 5.4.2 Zero Waste Management 83 5.4.3 Zero Surgical Errors 84 5.5 Tissue Engineering 84 5.6 Cybernetics 85 5.7 Advancements in Drug Creation and Treatment 86 5.8 Case Studies in Healthcare 87 5.8.1 Ping An Good Doctor 87 5.8.2 Cancer Screening Case Study 87 5.9 Paramedics and AI 88 5.10 Cybersecurity in Healthcare 89 5.11 Conclusion 90 5.12 Notes 91 Chapter 6 Education 93 6.1 Introduction 93 6.2 Learning for the Future 94 6.3 Teaching in the Future 96 6.3.1 The Use of AI for Predicting Exam Success 97 6.4 AI and Language in the Classroom 98 6.4.1 Automated Essay Scoring 98 6.4.2 Removing Communication Barriers 99 6.5 Robots in the Classroom 99 6.6 The Shortage of Tech Talent 100 6.7 Case Studies in Education 101 6.8 Conclusion 101 6.9 Notes 102 Chapter 7 Defense 105 7.1 Introduction 105 7.2 Use Cases of AI in Defense 106 7.2.1 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance 107 7.2.2 Logistics 108 7.2.3 Cyberspace Operations 108 7.2.4 Information Operations and “Deep Fakes” 108 7.2.5 Command and Control 108 7.2.6 AI and Augmented Reality Soldiers 109 7.2.7 Semi-Autonomous and Autonomous Vehicles 109 7.3 Ethical Issues 110 7.4 Drones 111 7.5 Conclusion 113 7.6 Notes 114 Chapter 8 Smarter Cities and Transportation 115 8.1 Introduction 115 8.2 Smarter Cities 115 8.2.1 Smart Infrastructure 116 8.2.2 Smart Transportation 116 8.2.3 Street Lighting 116 8.2.4 Water Utilities 117 8.2.5 Emergency Services 117 8.2.6 Waste Collection and Disposal 118 8.2.7 Maintenance of Public Places 118 8.2.8 Humans as Devices 118 8.2.9 Data Challenges for Smart Cities 119 8.3 Transportation 119 8.3.1 Traffic Management 120 8.3.2 Road Safety 120 8.3.3 Highway Maintenance 121 8.3.4 Autonomous Trams 121 8.3.5 Autonomous Taxis 123 8.4 Railways and the Future of Rail 123 8.4.1 Net Zero in Rail 124 8.4.2 AI and Effective Rail Timetabling 125 8.5 Air Travel 126 8.6 Conclusion 128 8.7 Notes 128 Chapter 9 Housing and the Environment 131 9.1 Introduction 131 9.2 AI in Social Housing 131 9.2.1 Risk Management in Social Housing 133 9.2.2 Transforming the Tenant Experience 133 9.2.3 Case Study – Housemark Pilot 134 9.2.4 Social Housing Fraud 135 9.2.5 Tenant Viewpoint 136 9.2.6 AI as a Virtual Housing Assistant 137 9.2.7 Chatbots in Social Housing 137 9.3 AI and the Environment 138 9.4 Management of Natural Disasters 139 9.4.1 Flooding and Flood Management 139 9.4.2 Flood Defense 140 9.4.3 Earthquakes, Windstorms, and Forest Fires 141 9.5 Conclusion 141 9.6 Notes 142 Chapter 10 Employment, Industry, and Agriculture 145 10.1 Introduction 145 10.2 Employment 145 10.2.1 Unemployment 146 10.3 AI and Industry 148 10.3.1 State-Owned Enterprises 149 10.3.2 China Model 150 10.3.3 South African Model 150 10.3.4 UK Model 150 10.3.5 SOEs in the United States 151 10.4 Agriculture 151 10.4.1 The Role of AI in Agricultural Policy 152 10.4.2 The Role of AI in Environmental Issues 153 10.5 Conclusion 153 10.6 Notes 154 Chapter 11 The Role of the State 157 11.1 Introduction 157 11.2 What Is the Role of the State? 157 11.3 What Is Surveillance? 159 11.4 Reasons for Surveillance 160 11.5 Surveillance Capitalism 161 11.6 Surveillance in Covid “Track and Trace” 163 11.7 Data Justice and Independent Oversight 164 11.8 A Contrary View 166 11.9 The Ethics of Surveillance 167 11.10 Nudging the Citizen 168 11.11 Conclusion 170 11.12 Notes 171 Chapter 12 Risk and Cybercrime 173 12.1 Introduction 173 12.2 The Nature of Risk 173 12.2.1 Management of Risk 174 12.2.2 Three Lines of Risk Defense 176 12.3 Roles and Responsibilities in the Public Sector 176 12.4 Examples of Risk 176 12.4.1 Technology and System Failure 177 12.4.2 Data Security and Privacy 178 12.4.3 Employee Error 179 12.4.4 Failure of Processes, Systems, and Policies 180 12.4.5 Reputational Risk 181 12.4.6 External Risk 183 12.5 Cybercrime in the Public Sector 183 12.6 Prevention of Cybercrime and Protection from It 186 12.6.1 Air Gapping 186 12.6.2 Supply Chain Vulnerability 186 12.6.3 Impact on Insurance Coverage 187 12.7 The Use of AI in Managing Risk 187 12.8 Conclusion 188 12.9 Notes 189 Chapter 13 Implementation – Leadership and Management 191 13.1 Introduction 191 13.2 Leadership 192 13.2.1 Transfer of Private Sector Leaders to the Public Sector 195 13.3 Leaders or Managers? 196 13.4 Managing the Mission 197 13.4.1 Creating the Mission 197 13.4.2 Prioritization: Where to Start? 198 13.4.3 Communicating the Mission Statement 199 13.5 Management of Resources 201 13.5.1 Technical versus Traditional 201 13.5.2 Specialist versus Generalist 201 13.5.3 Training and Education 202 13.6 Management of Key Stakeholders 204 13.6.1 Worker Representation and Trade Unions 205 13.6.2 US Policy Recommendations 207 13.6.3 German Policy Recommendations 208 13.6.4 “Dignity at Work” and Working from Home 209 13.7 Conclusion 211 13.8 Notes 211 Chapter 14 Further Implementation Issues 213 14.1 Introduction 213 14.2 A Theoretical Approach to Change 213 14.3 Managing the Problem of Bias 217 14.3.1 Data Exclusion from Marginalized Communities 219 14.3.2 Locational Data Issues 220 14.4 Operational Considerations 220 14.4.1 Piloting and Test Running the System 220 14.4.2 Measuring Benefit 221 14.4.3 Independent Review 222 14.5 Outsourcing, Partnering, and Supply Chain Management 222 14.6 The Concept of “Nudge” 226 14.7 Global Considerations 228 14.8 Conclusion 231 14.9 Notes 232 Chapter 15 Conclusion 233 15.1 Reflections 233 15.2 AI and the Real Pace of Change 234 15.3 Measuring ROI – More Art Than Science? 235 15.4 AI and Stimulation of Wider Reforms 236 15.5 The Role of Government in Public Sector Transformation 237 15.6 Moving the Goalposts 238 15.7 Notes 239 Appendix A: The Seven Principles of Public Life 241 Appendix B: Transformation Roadmap for Public Services 243 Appendix C: List of Tables 245 Appendix D: List of Figures 247 Index 249