The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: ""On Robustness...

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan

Name: The Black Swan
Price: 47.95 AUD
Availability: OutOfStock
ISBN: 9780812973815

Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: ""On Robustness and...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

$47.95

Paperback

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English

Random US
11 May 2010

Information theory; Economics & Business; Management & management techniques; Information architecture

Series: Incerto

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Imprint: Random US
Country of Publication: United States
Dimensions: Height: 203mm, Width: 133mm, Spine: 24mm
Weight: 340g
ISBN: 9780812973815
ISBN 10: 081297381X
Series: Incerto
Publication Date: 11 May 2010
Audience: General/trade , ELT Advanced
Format: Paperback
Publisher's Status: Active

Reviews for The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: ""On Robustness and Fragility""

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. --GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. --The Times (London) A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. --The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. --Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. --The New York Times Book Review Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. The Times (London) A masterpiece. Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable compelling . . . easy to dip into. Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. The New York Times Book Review Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. The Times (London) A masterpiece. Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable compelling . . . easy to dip into. Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. The New York Times Book Review Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. --GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. -- The Times (London) A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. --The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. -- Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. --The New York Times Book Review Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb The most prophetic voice of all. --GQ Praise for The Black Swan [A book] that altered modern thinking. -- The Times (London) A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate [Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy. --The Wall Street Journal Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. -- Financial Times Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition. --The New York Times Book Review The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works. --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into. -- Financial Times A masterpiece. --Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail Idiosyncratically brilliant. --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times